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How much does it cost to build a $6,800 car?; Yes, I'm talking Elio...
Topic Started: Aug 20 2014, 02:22 AM (1,956 Views)
me2


Apparently it will cost $230 MILLION dollars to roll the first one off the line. Of course Paul is doing the sensible thing and trying to get taxpayers to assume the risk by getting a government loan for the bulk of the millions. You know, some here would say I have shown little faith in the Elio dream. ( I know I would say that about me)

The sad part is I have even less faith in our government (no matter who is in office). It is not impossible that those idiots (pick a brand, any brand) will give him the money.

http://www.arklatexhomepage.com/story/d/story/elio-applies-for-us-dept-of-energy-loan/29107/ibwbB2afRUWUODVLVGdo_g

How does a car that brags it is "95%" off the shelf (currently running a 24 year old drive train) pretend to qualify for an "advanced technology" loan? Wouldn't you at least need ONE prototype that proved it gets 84mpg?

Did Paul put Rain-x on the windshield? Is that some kind of fancy slip-stream technology? Rain-x is not cheap. I'm betting that is the secret sauce in his application...

Either that or Paul got the Perfesser and Myredvert to write the loan application. That thing would be full of so much double talk, BS and government-speak that I would immediately send in my money for an Elio reservation on hearing this. Then, I would try and auction it off on Ebay with a 150% reserve on it. What , I sound nuts?
And Paul doesn't?
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Jonathan6229


me2
Aug 20 2014, 02:22 AM
Apparently it will cost $230 MILLION dollars to roll the first one off the line. Of course Paul is doing the sensible thing and trying to get taxpayers to assume the risk by getting a government loan for the bulk of the millions. You know, some here would say I have shown little faith in the Elio dream. ( I know I would say that about me)

The sad part is I have even less faith in our government (no matter who is in office). It is not impossible that those idiots (pick a brand, any brand) will give him the money.

http://www.arklatexhomepage.com/story/d/story/elio-applies-for-us-dept-of-energy-loan/29107/ibwbB2afRUWUODVLVGdo_g

How does a car that brags it is "95%" off the shelf (currently running a 24 year old drive train) pretend to qualify for an "advanced technology" loan? Wouldn't you at least need ONE prototype that proved it gets 84mpg?

Did Paul put Rain-x on the windshield? Is that some kind of fancy slip-stream technology? Rain-x is not cheap. I'm betting that is the secret sauce in his application...

Either that or Paul got the Perfesser and Myredvert to write the loan application. That thing would be full of so much double talk, BS and government-speak that I would immediately send in my money for an Elio reservation on hearing this. Then, I would try and auction it off on Ebay with a 150% reserve on it. What , I sound nuts?
And Paul doesn't?
Hater's gonna hate.
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me2


I figure the hate will keep me warmer than a $1000.00 Elio T-shirt
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myredvert
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myredvert

Quote:
 
Either that or Paul got the Perfesser and Myredvert to write the loan application. That thing would be full of so much double talk, BS and government-speak that I would immediately send in my money for an Elio reservation on hearing this.
Speaking for myself, I think if they got someone besides myself from here (me2, you up for it?) to address the aerodynamic and performance issues it might fit in much better with their overall marketing approach. ;)

I'm also guessing if perfesser addresses the factual aspects of their business/manufacturing plan, they are more likely to be indicted than endowed.
:cheers
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Freeman
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The Family Man

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me2


hahahaha The new Elio ad by Turbhype Productions - Born of the farts of Unicorns with the sweet scent of rainbows - Hello Elio!!! It seems people have been parting with a thousand bucks with less to go on than that.

Hey Red, I doubt I am up to solving Elio's aerodynamic and performance issues but it is sad that I feel like I have probably put more effort into trying to understand them then Paul himself has. (For example- I believe the Elio currently MIGHT get better than 40 mpg. But Paul doesn't release these numbers. hmmmm , wonder why not? Why don't these media idiots who are basically writing 'reservation' ads for Paul even ASK , "Hey Paul, what kind of mileage is the Elio right there getting?" . Instead they let Paul run a snake oil press release.) Once the mule was built Paul put ALL of his effort into sales.

Hey , the Elio has an I-pod port, electric windows, air conditioning and fruit loop colors, who needs a stinking wind tunnel, employees, tooling or a real prototype to sell cars? In fact , a finished prototype would HURT sales - reality of MPG and actual cost to build would bite hard. Better stick with the mule/protohype and focus on sales. Peoples imagination is much more lucrative than reality.


This article saying he is looking for government money is the only NEW thing I believe he has worked on. Everything else has been totally things that help support hype - like 'selecting' Pep Boys to handle maintenance -big whoopty doo Paul, where is the car? Where are the employees?
Where is the several million you have already pulled in? Why can't you start wasting, I mean spending money on building cars?

What happened to that block that was 'being readied to ship to IAV' ? I know, I know, there will be a carefully timed press release that says they received it when it looks like 'reservations' are slumping. Gotta spend that hype budget wisely.

Yeah I think Perfesser has revealed enough of the real world of manufacturing to further convince me that Paul is just making another movie --
"Planet of the Fakes" . (Script consultant Bernard Madoff) So far , the plot is totally that of a scam and lacking any of the components of a real attempt to start a company.

Edited by me2, Aug 20 2014, 09:19 AM.
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myredvert
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myredvert

The Elio - proof that even if you don't build it, they will still buy t-shirts..."
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Hey Red, I doubt I am up to solving Elio's aerodynamic and performance issues but it is sad that I feel like I have probably put more effort into trying to understand them then Paul himself has. (For example- I believe the Elio currently MIGHT get better than 40 mpg.
I have no reason to doubt your sincerity about the amount of effort you have put into it, but I'm gonna' have to break it to you that no amount of effort can change the laws of Physics and Aerodynamics, and no matter how much we may feel he does or does not deserve their consideration, they still apply equally to Mr. E and his orangecycleof dreams as they do to everyone else. ;)

And not that he doesn't deserve your skepticism - again because of the overwhelming smell of BS in the Elio-air, but by all means please explain how you are calculating your "might get 40 mpg" assessment?" Exactly how do you get from a lower weight vehicle than a Metro, with notably less frontal area than a Metro, fairly reasonable to estimate (that it has) a lower Cd than Metro, with the same engine as a Metro (but of completely unknown condition), and end up with roughly the same mpg than a Metro with an automatic? How DO that happen? :hmm
And when that newer, higher efficiency IAV Eliomatic 100 engine (cough, cough) finally shows up... Well, that thing better be offered with studded ice/snow tires... :rofl
Quote:
 
But Paul doesn't release these numbers. hmmmm , wonder why not?
I don't! LOL In all fairness to him, the largest reason is because most people (cough, cough) won't understand the actual numbers well enough to realize what they actually mean for the actual car when it is actually configured as intended in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 20xx... and in fairness to you, I would suspect that a few of the parameters may not be quite what they "predicted" they will be. My first guess would be that weight is already higher than was originally predicted (and used in their performance estimates) - that's a common one that all but the most sophisticated of aircraft designers fall prey to on a regular basis during "development." But again in fairness to him, that new IAV engine that is probably only days away from production likely weighs at least 10 lbs less than a G10, which should net him another .05 mpg or so.

Quote:
 
Why don't these media idiots who are basically writing 'reservation' ads for Paul even ASK , "Hey Paul, what kind of mileage is the Elio right there getting? Instead they let Paul run a snake oil press release.) Once the mule was built Paul put ALL of his effort into sales.
While it doesn't in any way change your assessment of the project as a whole (with which I agree), you got me curious. What makes you think that the "non-idiot" question would be to ask what the mpg is of "that Elio right there" is? And, to what specific "aerodynamic and performance" issues are you referring that need solved?

If someone were to ask Elio the right questions as you do insightfully suggest (you're absolutely right about that concept), then ask the questions that would provide the appropriate data in order to have value as a predictor of performance and mpg. Hint, the least valuable question by far is the mpg of "that one right there," unless you want to share your new secret method for reverse estimating the CdA, Crr, frontal area, and weight from that one number. While you're at it, ask for the specs that can help put those numbers in proper perspective, e.g., what is the vacuum and compression it had when the mpg was measured, what were the exact ambient/road conditions the mpg was measured over, how was it measured, when (if) was the engine and transmission was rebuilt, who did it, what final drive and tire diameter does it have, and what fluids and parts were used in the engine and transmission, etc., etc., etc. Then ask what the predicted efficiency of the new IAV engine (cough, cough) is in comparison to a G10.

Just because "mpg" is the one thing that people who don't "do" aerodynamics can most easily "relate to," and is the main reason why it is measured for cars using a standardized format for "comparison," it doesn't mean the "relationship" is understood well enough to then use it to predict performance of other vehicles very accurately with using absolutely no actual relevant measurements. You're demanding an "orange" number (pun intended), believing you can use it to make an "apple" comparison.

Ask for the estimated or measured Cd, and how they got it, Ask for the estimated or measured Coefficient of rolling resistance, and how they got it, (with emphasis on determining if any data to this point was CFD predicted, measured with actual coastdown tests, or heaven forbid, in a wind tunnel). Ask for the measured weight. Ask for the measured frontal area.

It's interesting that the willingness of people to believe such very different things based on unSWAGs is the very reason why some people DO buy t-shirts, while others think it isn't capable of anything near the predicted performance. There's plenty of both types in the world, and Mr. e only needs "x" amount of folks who wishinate in one direction to afford his retirement villa in the Carribean.

Riddle me this, how can the first Elio be produced like "Ten years After" and yet not appear until 2525?

"Now it's been ten thousand years, Elio believers have cried a billion tears
For what, they never knew, now their t-shirts are all worn through
But through eternal night, the twinkling of elio headlights
So very far away, maybe it's only yesterday...."

(Ten Years After - In The Year 2525)
Edited by myredvert, Aug 20 2014, 10:52 AM.
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Rondawg
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I hope they can do it but certainly have my doubts. There is a small startup company here in Durham NC building a "car" called an ELF. Solar powered 1 hp battery back motor with pedal assist. Bicycle tires, no floorboards and they are selling for $5,000! I don't see how Elio could possibly put a car out like they are saying for less than $10,000.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elf-electric-pedal-car-when-1-hp-is-enough-2013-07-20
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myredvert
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myredvert

That thing looks cool...

I'm curious what the "bike guys" on here think about it?

And somethings makes their "price estimate" seem much more reasonable to believe... Notice they were honest to admit the price "just went up," Unlike the Elio, where they keep twisting words and "deals" to make the price appear to actually come down.

If you want to know when the Elio is actually on the verge of being produced for real, just watch for the price to jump way up. That is, if the entity that loans them production money cares about profitability. If it's a gov't loan, x percent of that loan will go to fatten the retirement villa fund and will only prolong the inevitable agony of defeat. Which is how some of the folks who hoped to drive one will be getting around, and what they will feel.
Edited by myredvert, Aug 20 2014, 11:25 AM.
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Rondawg
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myredvert
Aug 20 2014, 11:24 AM
That thing looks cool...

I'm curious what the "bike guys" on here think about it?

And somethings makes their "price estimate" seem much more reasonable to believe... Notice they were honest to admit the price "just went up," Unlike the Elio, where they keep twisting words and "deals" to make the price appear to actually come down.

If you want to know when the Elio is actually on the verge of being produced for real, just watch for the price to jump way up. That is, if the entity that loans them production money cares about profitability. If it's a gov't loan, x percent of that loan will go to fatten the retirement villa fund and will only prolong the inevitable agony of defeat. Which is how some of the folks who hoped to drive one will be getting around, and what they will feel.
They have sold lots of those ELF cars, I see em running around Durham frequently. There has been several write ups in local papers too. I guess my point was that these cars which require no registration, no safety equipment, etc. etc. are being sold for roughly 5 grand!
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perfesser
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Elite Member - Former Metro owner

Interesting article on the ELF.

“We’re creating our own consumer product category,” said Cotter, whose operation in a downtown storefront in the former tobacco capital is bustling. The company has 1,500 orders in hand—more than enough to reach profitability, said Cotter, a TED talker who Kickstarted much of the original funding—and soon the company’s retinue of bike gurus and production staff (including some volunteers) will be moving to larger quarters downtown. Prices just went up: the Elf costs $4,995, more if you want the backup battery, the continuously variable transmission rear hub or the better solar panels."


Now this is the way to build a business. Start small and let customer demand grow it! Same model Henry Ford used over a century ago. You cannot start on a grand scale and try to push product on the public. That was the old Soviet model of central planning, and we saw how well that worked!!

1,500 orders to break even and get the finances in the black? And 26,000 (or whatever number he needs for marketing) is not enough to set up a small production line in a hangar somewhere? It'd take a couple dozen workers and 5-6 in the office to turn out 2 a day and generate an honest cash flow. Or change the business model and sell kits to the DIY market. Lot less regulatory burden if it's not a complete, running vehicle you're selling!

If Paul Elio were serious about producing cars, he would give long and hard consideration to these options. Imagine the propaganda marketing value of a few pictures of a lot full of rainbow-colored Elios!! Instead he has staffed a full marketing operation and hasn't released order #1 for tooling or posted a production job listing. As happily as he issues press releases, one would think that he would be bragging on the steps being taken to actually build these unicorns, but as far as the public knows he hasn't put the first prototype engine on a dyno yet! Not a lot of information on who will be designing their transmission options yet, either.

On the scale he's talking about, and his public statements of where they are in the product development cycle, from my experience working on new vehicle development programs, I'd have to say that he is still at least 2-3 years from shipping the first production vehicle. And that's only if he focuses his full attention and resources on actually doing it instead of talking endlessly about doing it.
Edited by perfesser, Aug 20 2014, 12:55 PM.
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me2


Yeah, that ELF is cool. Too spendy for me but an honest concept.

Ok Red , here's the deal. I am not highly educated and experienced like you are but I never let lack of knowledge sway my opinions. Or, to be less insulting to myself, I realize there are different kinds of knowledge.

The reason I am so stuck on dis-belief in high mpg possibilities for an auto-matic G10 (like Elio currently runs) is that I have tremendous faith in the Metro community here and the 'cheap bastards' who populate this site (like me). I know that huge amounts of man hours and honest effort have gone into trying to squeeze mpgs out of the Metro. From what I have seen people have given up on doing mods to an automatic car because it is futile. It is my perception (and possibly only mine) that the automatic in these cars has a brick wall of possibilities for mpgs that happens right about at 40 mpg. Every engine and every tranny and every combination has theoretical limits. We do know that.

I think the GMF has defined it for the G10/auto at about 40 mpg. I could be wrong. If anyone here has done mods that go much above that I would love to hear about it. I trust the people here more than I trust Paul. Hey, if Paul came out and said he was getting 50 mpg with his combo I would actually be impressed and not terribly skeptical.

What do you think the G10/auto in an Elio can get and please show your work (LOL) I won't settle for unscientific , wild guesses like I make. I expect better from you. Just don't make it too mathy or I won't be able to follow it and you will have wasted your time. I'll take your word for your process. Or have you simply guessed like me? Are you going
'orange blind'?? (I actually like that orange and the other fruitsickle colors)

Why do I think asking him about 'that there' car is an un-dumb question. Well, because given the extensive and massive anecdotal body of information in this car community with experience with that drive train and what can be done with it , I think it would be a valuable comparison to something that exists in reality. Unlike the 'projected 84 mpg' claim which to my knowledge has NEVER been tied to reality. You know something like an actual or car or even some numbery type calculations that someone like you could do. As far as I can tell Paul pulled this number out of his backside.

If someone here were planning extensive mods with a 'projected' mpg every would want to know "Well, what are getting now?" as a baseline.

I agree that if the price goes up this would be a sign of reality setting in. If the current G10/auto numbers were released that would be another sign of reality. We here in GMF could really know a lot from that number. Wow, if it was good he would have most of us raving about the possibilities of the Elio instead of being skeptical. He would have a whole web site of fanatics PROMOTING the Elio idea. If he hires even a couple of the 'projected' 1500 employees- that would be a sign of reality. There are lots of things that would begin to look real. I haven't seen any of them. I don't think we disagree on that.

Are we going to have to mount a G10/auto on a bicycle with a plastic bubble around it and go to the salt flats and settle this thing? (PS- I don't think we would do it because we KNOW it would be a waste of time - ok, that's my final shot at the auto. Can you believe I have NEVER posted in the 'auto haters' thread? LOL I should get honorable mention over there or a Certificate of Negativity or SOMETHING)
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Freeman
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The Family Man

That ELF thing is sweet! A neat concept at least. He started something, sold a few, and grew from there. Definitely the way business should be conducted.
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myredvert
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myredvert

Quote:
 
From what I have seen people have given up on doing mods to an automatic car because it is futile. It is my perception (and possibly only mine) that the automatic in these cars has a brick wall of possibilities for mpgs that happens right about at 40 mpg. Every engine and every tranny and every combination has theoretical limits. We do know that.
Yes, but that does not take into account the actual effect of the aerodynamics. Whether or not people here (or anywhere) realize it, they have a huge effect. And the Elio is significantly different than a Metro when it comes to those aspects of it.

There's a big difference between knowing what our Metros "get" mpg-wise, and knowing why they get what they get, or further being able to transfer that 'knowledge" to a completely different vehicle simply because it has the same engine.

I bet you would understand that your Metro has a theoretical maximum speed because of a limit imposed by aerodynamic drag, right? Att some speed a little over 100 mph (for most Metros) the hp required to overcome that (and actually the total) drag will be reached. But, let's say rmcelwee's cat had not eaten all your horspowerz and you had a few extra of them lying around to put in your G10. As long as a gearing limit (redline) is not reached in your drivetrain combination, then you will be able to go a little faster.

Now, what if you took the same horsepower, but reduced the amount of aerodynamic drag. You would again be able to go faster because the hp required to go faster would be reduced. Now, instead of driving as fast as possible, we drive at some slower fixed speed where aerodynamic drag is still very prevalent, say around 55 mph. If you have less aerodynamic drag (for example, an Elio type chassis), you will get better mpg with the same engine than in a vehicle with more aerodynamic drag (like for instance a Metro). That's why the Elio is quite capable of doing much better even with the same engine/transmission - because it will have (does have) SIGNIFICANTLY lower total aerodynamic drag at any given speed than a Metro.

To me, what you are saying is the same as saying that because the Metro community here has such a great understadning of what their G10/autos can get, if you put a G10/auto in a Full size Pick up truck then it should get the same mpg. Same logic, just different direction aero drag and weight wise.
Quote:
 
I think the GMF has defined it for the G10/auto at about 40 mpg. I could be wrong.
What you said is not wrong in the least. It's what you didn't say that makes it "wrong" to over-extend that one particular fact and use it to make some type of "estimate" for a vehicle with considerably different aerodynamic characteristics. And you know I'm using the term "wrong" respectfully and lovingly. ^o)

What you left out is also quite telling about where and why our opinions diverge. You didn't say they have defined it for a typical Metro with a G10 /auto. :whistle

I'll take a shot at presenting some of the rough concepts I use to get my idea of what an Elio is capable of, if you'll allow me to take them on one at a time, with no particular effort into turning them into a nicely organized presentation. Understand that I am not an aerodynamicist, nor have I ever played one on TV, and allow me to set up a base comparison between the Elio and a Metro using a manual transmission as a baseline, since I have always maintained that the "84" mpg thing wasn't totally out of the realm of possibility with a manual, not an automatic. When I'm done with the g10/5 speed comparisons, then we can downgrade the estimate to reflect the normal hit we see the Metro'ss auto transmission creates.

And, I don't have answers to the questions I think Elio should be asked, so I am simply using some reasonable guesing for my "conclusions."
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Tim Keith


Using the OEM Metro transaxle in the prototype would probably not provide optimal fuel economy for the lighter Elio. I think the final drive ratio should be around 3.0:1 or so. Suppose you built a Metro with a carbon fiber body and Lexan side glass that weighed 1,350 pounds. To take full advantage of the lighter weight you could use taller wheels and tires. Right? The 3.52:1 gear is the best economy ratio. I wish the Elio project the best. I'm not investing emotions against this one. I hope they can pull it off. Flip a coin one way or the other, I won't get upset if they don't build the Elio. Its just a little car.
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